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19 septembre 2008

Are we Depressed yet?

Je voudrais partager avec vous un fort bel article que je viens de lire. Bonne lecture?
Henri Gossé

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Are We Depressed Yet?

singletary
 

Donald L. Luskin, chief investment officer of Trend Macrolytics LLC, wrote in Sunday's Post that he was tired of seeing pessimistic comparisons to the Great Depression in media reports about the current state of the economy.

"Things today just aren't that bad," Luskin writes in A Nation Of Exaggerators: Quit Doling Out That Bad-Economy Line (Sept. 14). "Sure, there are trouble spots in the economy, as the government takeover of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and jitters about Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers, amply demonstrate. And unemployment figures are up a bit, too. None of this, however, is cause for depression -- or exaggerated Depression comparisons.

Aren't that bad?

I guess Luskin misread the tea leaves. An adviser to presidential candidate John McCain, Luskin's timing was way off. I mean he certainly couldn't have known that not even a day after his editorial appeared in the Post, two major Wall Street investment companies would implode and insurance giant AIG would tumble into the hands of the feds. Nor could he have known that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would drop 500 points -- its largest point decline since the day the stock market reopened after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

But hey, Luskin's right when he says we aren't "officially" in a recession.

And to that I say: "I don't give a rat's behind." (An expression I picked up from my grandmother, Big Mama.)

We as a country are certainly feeling all the things you feel when you are in a recession. I'm afraid to even look at my recent 401(k) balance. The last time I did, I screamed. My husband thought someone was breaking into our house.

Still Luskin is technically right. As Post reporter Michael A. Fletcher wrote recently in Financial Crises Have Slowed But Not Halted U.S. Economy (Sept. 16), the economy has continued to expand over the last year. Even though there is evidence that economic growth will slow or halt, we aren't in a declared recession.

I Laugh in the Face of a Looming Recession

Lord knows we all need a laugh right now, so click over to Gene Weingarten's discussion group for a humorous look at how to survive a recession. Here are a few of Weingarten's ideas:

1. Don't just use the toilet paper; also use the wrapping paper it comes in and the cardboard tube.

2. Pretend to be a ventriloquist so you can get your kid into a movie for free. (Though my kids have been drilled about being honest and would rat me out.)

3. Remember, if any item in any store says it is "nontoxic," that means it's food.

4. Choose your pet strategically. In tough times, you'll want one that is well-fleshed, particularly in the flanks, loin and rump.

Others have chimed in about their plans to survive a recession (you know the one we aren't in yet). Here's what one person wrote:

1. Swallow your toothpaste for a quick breakfast.

2. Graze from the office refrigerator for lunch. No one remembers what is in there anyway.

3. Dine on grocery store samples. (Not sure this will work given the higher prices of food. I haven't seen a sample table at my grocery store for ages).

For more funny tips go to the Gene Pool for Tips to Ride Out the Recession. (Sept. 15)

Making Cents of Things

Why do we humanize the stock market or give it a personality?

For example, when the market is unpredictable, news headlines may say it woke up with the jitters. "The greater the unpredictability of a system, the more likely people are to ascribe volitional qualities to it," says Nicholas Epley, a professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago.

Reporters Joel Garreau and Shankar Vedantam have dissected the psychology of how we see the stock market in Dealing With Scary Mr. Market (Sept. 16).

And for those of you wondering what to do given the current market conditions read Nancy Trejos's What Market Tumult Means For Average Stakeholders (Sept. 16) for answers from the experts.

Make the Grade And Earn Money

Should we pay kids for good grades and behavior? I've written about this issue in the last few e-letters. In her On Parenting blog, Stacey Garfinkle continues the debate in Pay Up; He Got an 'A' (Sept. 16).

"I think the cash for grades idea will be far more productive than just throwing money at the system," wrote one reader.

Another person who objects to paying kids to attend school wrote: "When these kids get to college and they have to pay out instead of getting a payoff -- where will they be? These programs satisfy the instant gratification tendencies of these kids -- what's wrong with working hard for the bigger pay out in the end?"

I asked you what you thought of paying students. Here are some of your comments:

"With many of the students it may be a case of pay them now so that we will not have to pay for them to sit in jail later" says M.W. Singleton of Brooklyn, Md. "We are losing so many of our kids to the streets. We have got to try something."

Vincent A. Ettari of Shrub Oak, N.Y., says, "We work for money. It is a motivator. If it encourages kids to expend the energy required to learn, then 'while other people may say why, I say, why not' to paraphrase John Kennedy."

Ron Ambler wrote: "Most states use property tax to fund schools and these taxes are already enormously high everywhere. Adding this financial incentive to the schools budget will aggravate this situation."

"While this idea may work in the short run, long term this teaches children that education is a job and doesn't have a value beyond the dollar," says the Greenfield, Ind., resident.

Chat Reminder

There's a chat next week, Thursday, September 25th at Noon ET.

I'll discuss September's Color of Money Book Club pick, "The Teen Girl's Gotta-Have-It Guide to Money" (Watson-Guptill, $8.95) with authors Jessica Blatt and Variny Paladino which I reviewed in my column on Sept. 7. Also check out the Color of Money Book Club Archive.

You Asked

Last week's web chat focused heavily on weddings. As usual, I wasn't able to answer as many questions as I would have liked. So here are some leftovers. You'll have to check out the chat to get the background on the Friday wedding debate:

Q: I'm a bride who will be getting married on a Friday this May. I thought I could provide some perspective for people. The reason why we chose a Friday instead of a Saturday was that it was not only cheaper (and we're trying to be fiscally responsible and only pay in cash for the wedding so this was a real plus), but it also helps because the restaurant requires a lower minimum number of guests on Fridays and it's at the Jersey shore so it gives guests the opportunity to spend the rest of the weekend enjoying the beach. We realized that some people may not be able to take the day off but also know that a lot of friends are excited to use that as an excuse for a long relaxing weekend (we polled friends prior to making our decision). Just my two cents.

A: And a good two cents.

Q: I'll tell you why people are hung up on the Friday thing. It's because of the dysfunction surrounding weddings in America today. Our parents and grandparents pressured us to do the big family thing, try to control us by waving money at us, swearing they'll pay for it and we MUST do this, that, or the other. And the social pressures to go to all weddings you're invited to, because you don't LOVE your friend/relative if you don't show up, and the social pressure to give a gift that "covers your plate," and... The fact is, the social expectations are way broken. We need to take a look at what we think about weddings and marriages. Then we can discuss the financial aspects of both in a reasonable manner.

A: Glad to give you the space to vent. But for me, I'm not pressured at all. If I receive a wedding invitation and I want to go and can afford to go, I go. If I can't go, I decline. No fuss. No muss.

Q: Just wanted to point out that these "anti-brides" shouldn't entirely blame the bride or the wedding industry for the wedding madness and consumerism. I have heard plenty of wedding guests make rude comments about a wedding that they attended that did not meet their standards. I've heard guests complain about the music, the food, the decorations, and so on. No wonder brides and grooms feel the need to host their guests lavishly. If they don't they'll be sure to get an earful from some PO'd relative. It's not just about greedy brides and grooms expecting to get expensive wedding gifts. What about the greedy guests who expect to be treated to a five-course meal and live entertainment just for being asked to witness a friend or relative's nuptials?

A: Certainly guests will complain, but in many cases the bride or groom will never hear those rude comments. The thing is you can't live your life or spend your money to please others. That's why so many people are broke.

Q: I read someplace that your guests pay for some of the wedding without their knowledge. How true is this?

A: What you may be referring to is that some couples holding their weddings in exotic locations may get a free room or part of their expenses paid for by the resort if they are able to get a certain number of guests to book a stay. I don't think there's anything wrong with this as long as the couple doesn't pressure guests to come so that they can get a free ride.

Q: Just looking for confirmation I guess. My husband and I just got married last year and had our first (unexpected!) baby this year. But we're still in an apartment! We frugalized like crazy and got enough in savings to just about be equivalent to our credit debt. We have agonized over whether to use it to pay off the credit debt or to make a down payment on a house. We've decided not to use it for a home. But it is a hard decision when everyone (well everyone trying to sell) keeps saying it's such a buyers market. I think you'd advise paying off credit card debt before adding mortgage debt, no?

A: Yes. I would pay off the credit card debt, which, if it's almost equivalent to a down payment on a home, certainly represents a lot of consumer debt. You don't want to drag that debt into a new home with a new baby. Pay off the debt, and with that same passion, save for the home. Besides, not having that debt may help you get a better mortgage deal. You did the right thing.

Q: I was behind on my mortgage by three months due to a job loss. I'm currently on a repayment plan. My wife and I only have enough money to pay for the mortgage, our cars, light utilities, food and home upkeep. We have credit cards to pay but we can't because we are trying to save our home. Bill collectors are calling all the time. What should we do? I'm thinking of filing for bankruptcy.

A: Wait, don't file yet. First, you probably aren't bankrupt. Contact all of your creditors and explain your situation. Ask for a repayment plan, much like you did for your mortgage. If the first call doesn't get you anywhere, keep going up the chain until you find someone who can help. If that doesn't work, go to www.debtadvice.org for help.

Q: My husband of 10 months and I disagree on which bill to pay off first, his credit card with $7,000 or my car note with $5,000. He wants to take our emergency fund of $3,000 and pay my car note. I disagree. I would prefer to continue to build the money up. He says the money is doing us no good as long as we have debt. Either way $3,000 won't pay the entire car debt and we wouldn't have any money for emergency.

A: You are right. I wouldn't use the emergency money. Instead, cut expenses as much as you can or get second jobs to work on paying off the debt. Normally I would say start with the debt with the lowest balance (the car loan) but if the credit card debt is at a very high interest rate, pay that off first.

You are welcome to e-mail comments and questions to singletarym@washpost.com. Please include your name and hometown; your comments may be used in a future column or newsletter unless otherwise requested.

Charity Brown contributed to this e-letter.

-Michelle Singletary

 

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